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predictions against the point spread
01-26-2019, 10:06 AM,
Post: #1
predictions against the point spread
Week 3 picks Cheap Dalvin Tomlinson Jersey ,  Use this as your open thread for today’s non-Giants games.Well, last week was not good. But we’re ready to bounce back. Lines make a little more sense after two weeks of play rather than one, so let’s see if we can use that information to make a quick turnaround.Remember these picks are strictly for fun and entertainment purposes and please for your sake do not take these picks as gambling advice. Lines used here come from the Westgate Las Vegas via OddsShark. Home team in CAPS.Jets (+3) over CLEVELANDThe Jets and Browns are probably pretty close (they’re 25th and 27th by Football Outsiders’ DAVE, which still includes preseason projections). Both sides look to have the advantage on defense (Browns sixth in defensive DVOA vs Jets 25th offense and Jets second-ranked defense vs Cleveland’s 30th-ranked offense). Coaching could have a big impact here and that advantage 鈥?goes to the Jets? Like, pretty easily, right? What a world.NOTE: Well, Baker Mayfield and the Browns had other ideas here.MINNESOTA (-17) over BuffaloStealing from last week: there’s a point where the line would be so high I’d seriously consider the Bills. Seventeen points ain’t it. Buffalo’s offensive line and skill players against the Minnesota defense? I’d need at least three touchdowns to think about it.HOUSTON (-6) over GiantsBoth of these teams are 0-2, but they’re very different 0-2’s. Houston should at least be 1-1, possibly 2-0. They’re still 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Giants, meanwhile, should absolutely be an 0-2 team and it would be hard to spot them less than a touchdown on the road.[FanPulse: Each week we survey 100+ fans at each of our 32 SB Nation NFL communities. This week, Giants fans here at Big Blue View predicted a 6-point Texans win while our Texans site, Battle Red Blog, predicted a 1-point Texans win. Find more results here]KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over San FranciscoThere’s going to be a point when Patrick Mahomes stops throwing touchdowns at will, but I’m not sure that’s going to be this week against a 49ers defense that ranks 21st in yards allowed per drive through two weeks. San Francisco only stays close in this game if the offense can take advantage of Kansas City’s league-worst defense, but the offense has been off to a slow start.New Orleans (+3) over ATLANTAAtlanta’s defensive losses were felt a little against the Carolina Panthers — Christian McCaffrey had 14 receptions for 102 yards — and they’re probably be felt even more against the Saints. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is pretty high scoring — New Orleans’s defense has cratered back to 25th in DVOA — so I’m going to ride with the better offense.Green Bay (-3) over WASHINGTONWashington might be one of the weirdest teams to figure out through two weeks — a blowout win over Arizona (good!) and a not close loss to Indianapolis (huh?). The defense has been the standout, but that’s also been from forcing a high rate of turnovers — they’re fourth in turnovers forced per drive. That’s probably not going to happen against Aaron Rodgers, one and a half legs or not.PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over IndianapolisThe Eagles snuck out a 1-1 record with Nick Foles, though that could have easily been 0-2. It’s not just that the returning Carson Wentz is replacing Foles, he’s replacing the worst possible version of Foles. That’s about as big a quarterback upgrade you can get, no matter what you feel about how Wentz will perform in his first game back from his torn ACL.Indianapolis’s defense — 26th in yards allowed per drive — is exactly the unit you’d like to break him in against.MIAMI (-3) over OaklandMiami is one of the most surprising teams of the early season. They have the top defense in the league by DVOA through two weeks thanks to a high turnover rate. That might not help against a risk-averse Derek Carr, but rushing Carr to throw could force some bad decisions. Meanwhile, the Raiders defense can’t stop much of anything, which is good for an ok Dolphins offense.BALTIMORE (-5.5) over DenverBaltimore is somewhere between the dominant force against Buffalo and the just competitive enough but mistake prone version we saw against Cincinnati. Denver is a 2-0 greatly aided by playing two home games early in the season. Baltimore should be the better team — top-10 in both DVOA and DAVE — and the defense has been fantastic, even when accounting for the Bengals game — first in yards allowed per drive and fourth in points allowed per drive.Cincinnati (+3) over CAROLINAThe Bengals have been on fire lately. The switch to Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator has really helped Andy Dalton work out some of the struggles he typically shows. That could be a factor against a Carolina defense that has been off to a slow start — 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. However, the Bengals might need to rely on someone other than A.J. Green since the Panthers have allowed just 42 yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers.JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over TennesseeThe Jaguars defense is either facing Blaine Gabbert or a less than 100 percent Marcus Mariota. Sometimes picks don’t have to be complicated.Chargers (+7) over RAMSThe Rams have played like the better team coming in, but a touchdown feels like a slight to the Chargers. The team is still seventh in DVOA through two weeks and the offense has been really good. It might not be enough to win, but it could be enough to keep it close.SEATTLE (-1) over DallasWe can say the era of playoff caliber Seahawks teams is over. But it’s still hard to completely write them off. They started with two tough road games, but the defense still played pretty well. They’ll get a not fairly impressive Cowboys offense at home and maybe their first win of the season.Chicago (-5.5) over ARIZONAArizona had a top-5 defense and an offensive scheme that took advantage of its best players then made offseason hires to do the exact opposite of what was done previously. The Cardinals are a mess and borderline unwatchable. Khalil Mack and the rest of the Chicago defense will feast on Sam Bradford for as long as he’s in there, which for the sake of everyone hopefully isn’t long.New England (-7) over DETROITDetroit looks like a mess through two weeks and even though the Patriots haven’t looked dominant at any point — even in the Week 1 win against Houston — the Lions shouldn’t pose much of a threat. Darius Slay , the Lions’ best weapon on defense, hasn’t practiced this week, so that doesn’t help them at all.TAMPA BAY (+1) over PittsburghPick between an unsustainable big-play Buccaneers offense or a Steelers defense that has been susceptible to big plays playing on the road. It might not be time to press the panic button in Pittsburgh, but it’s also difficult to see this defense being the one that stops Tampa Bay’s current roll.Last week: 4-11-1Season: 13-17-2Giants 27, Texans 22: 7 things we learned in the Giants’ first victory The New York Giants came away with their first victory of the 2018 season on Sunday, beating the Houston Texans 27-22 in a game in which they were 6-point underdogs. It wasn’t a pretty win, by any means, and the Giants very nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as they allowed the Texans back in the game in the second half.They say that you learn more from failure than from success, but we learned plenty from the Giants’ first win.The Giants have given up on Ereck Flowers Okay, that more or less implies that they ever had any faith in Flowers to begin with. If we’re being honest with ourselves — and we are — Flowers’ days with the Giants were numbered anyway. Unless he stepped in at right tackle, completely reworked his game from the ground up, and somehow did in four months of playing right tackle what he hadn’t done in six years at left tackle for Miami and the Giants, he wasn’t going to be a Giant in 2019. To Flowers’ credit, he did make some improvement at right tackle between Week 1 and Week 2, but that apparently wasn’t enough. Saquon Barkley is #goodSaquon Barkley left the field in the first drive, only to come back and score a touchdown on a 15-yard run. He ended up with 17 carries for 82 yards.But even more than his big runs, Barkley’s physicality and balance through contact on his short runs was impressive. In between runs which went for chunk yardage, Barkley had runs where he was met at the line of scrimmage only to jump cut and spin out of an attempted tackle. Those plays might only have gone for a couple yards, but they might have been more impressive than the long runs. Of course, it should also be impressive that Barkley topped 100 total yards of total offense for the third straight week, racking up 117 yards and a touchdown.Kerry Wynn’s calendar read “August”Defensive lineman Kerry Wynn’s domination throughout training camp and preseason became legendary over the summer — to the point where Giants fans joked that the team took him off the field to give the other team a chance to evaluate their offense.After a pair of quiet weeks to open the season, Wynn turned the clock back to August against the Texans. The former UDFA out of Richmond was in on seemingly every play in the first half, and forced a fumble to derail a promising drive by the Texans and get the ball back to the offense in the second half. He also helped create Mario Edwards Jr’s sack as well as batting down a pass near the end of the game. The Giants’ entire defensive line played very well this game, with B.J. Hill getting the first sack of his NFL career, but Wynn is probably the defensive player of the game for the Giants.The Texans have a suspect offensive line, but Wynn stepped up in a big way as Olivier Vernon still tries to work his way back from the high ankle sprain he suffered in preseason.Eli Manning can still spin itThe offensive line wasn’t improved by replacing Flowers with Wheeler — the backup gave up three sacks to J.J. Watt, who entered the game without one in the first two games. Manning was sacked four times, but remained on target both in the pocket and on the move, consistently putting the ball in his receivers hands and giving them opportunities for yards after the catch. The Giants’ showed much more of a willingness to attack down the field than in last week’s horizontal game plan, and the result was plain to see. Manning has consistently thrived when given vertical options in his passing attack Cheap Jon Halapio Jersey , and hopefully Shurmur and Shula will keep them in there.This was the Manning in whom Dave Gettleman and Pat Shurmur expressed their belief, and the Giants need him to stick around for a few months if they want to claw out of the hole they dug for themselves in the first two weeks of the season.Also of note, Eli completed an incredible 25-of-29 passes, for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. That last number put Eli at seventh all time in passing touchdowns, tying former Giant Fran Tarkenton.The Giants still can’t defend running quarterbacksThe Giants spoke about the need to improve their defense of the read option in the week before Sunday’s game. It turned out that it wasn’t in Houston’s game-plan for the day, but the Giants were still gashed on the ground by DeShaun Watson. Four the third week in a row the Giants gave up more than 40 yards on the ground to the quarterback, with Watson scrambling for 53 (36 counting the yards lost to sacks). This time it wasn’t deception which hurt the Giants, but rather breakdowns in lane discipline on rushes and failure to keep contain on the athletic Watson.While dealing with the New Orleans Saints’ offense in week 4 will come with a whole host of problems, at least having to worry about the 39 year old Brees racking up rushing yards is not among them.This team has talentMaybe it was looking like a JV squad against the division-rival Cowboys that finally woke the team up. Maybe the offense and defense are finally starting to find their groove in their new schemes and get used to all the new faces on the roster. Whatever it is, the Giants finally seemed to click on both offense and defense, and the results were impressive. Damon Harrison and Dalvin Tomlinson are a force up front, while Janoris Jenkins has largely returned to form as a cover corner. B.J. Hill began to assert himself in the final quarter of the game, Lorenzo Carter showed off his athleticism and is coming ever closer to being an impact player. The Texans’ defense had no answers for Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Saquon Barkley. When Evan Engram went down, Rhett Ellison picked up the slack and the offense kept rolling.The offensive line and defensive secondary are still problems which will need to be addressed ASAP. But against a talented Texans team which is far better than their 0-3 record suggest, the Giants showed that they can not only win games, but dominate them. There are still wrinkles to be ironed out on both sides of the ball, and the defense is still without Vernon and Apple, but the Giants have finally shown us something to feel good about.The BBV staff sucks at picking games Last week we were solidly in the Giants corner, only to see them run off the field by the Dallas Cowboys. This week not a one of us had any faith in the G-Men to mount any kind of an offense in the face of Houston’s defense, or slow down DeShaun Watson with Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple on the trainers’ tables. We were wrong. So terribly, wonderfully, wrong. The Texans still got plenty of pressure on Eli Manning, but he turned the clock back to 2011 and stood tall in the face of Houston’s pass rush and was surgical with the football. The defense stepped up, generating a pass rush and suffocating the Texans’ league-leading run game. The Giants gave up 59 total yards on the ground and just 23 yards to the Texans’ running backs. Nearly 100 yards fewer than Houston’s average coming in to the week.I gladly eat my crow today, and this is one time I am happy to be wrong.
04-08-2019, 02:11 PM,
Post: #2
RE: predictions against the point spread
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05-22-2019, 10:36 PM,
Post: #3
RE: predictions against the point spread
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