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As the calendar flipped to November
12-15-2018, 10:25 AM,
Post: #1
As the calendar flipped to November
it looked like Womens Jake Matthews Jersey it was finally Utah’s time. Kyle Whittingham’s Utes have maybe been the most consistently solid team in the Pac-12 South; they are also the only team not to have won it.After a brilliant October that featured blowouts of Stanford, Arizona, and UCLA and an arm’s-length win over USC, everything was aligned properly. The South stunk, and Utah was up to 12th in S&P+. This was the year.On November 3, starting quarterback Tyler Huntley broke his collarbone and was lost for the season, and the Utes got blown out at Arizona State.On November 7 or so, starting running back and 1,000-yard rusher (already) Zack Moss aggravated a knee injury climbing into bed. He, too, was lost for the season.On November 10, Utah surged to a 13-0 lead against Oregon with backup quarterback Jason Shelley and backup running back Armand Shyne but watched that slowly fritter away. Oregon took a 25-22 lead with eight minutes left, and another late-season malaise — Utah fans’ biggest complaint about Whittingham is mediocre Novembers — appeared underway.The Utes responded to Oregon’s lead with a five-play, 60-yard drive that culminated in a Shelley touchdown. They tacked on a late field goal and survived, 32-25. And after two weeks from hell, they somehow remain the statistical favorites in the division from hell.There have been some spectacularly strange division races this year, and while some have wrapped up (Northwestern won the Big Ten West), and others have a clear leader (Pitt is in control of the ACC Coastal), the Pac-12 South remains as messy as ever.Three teams still have a shot. At 4-3 and holding a tie-breaker advantage over Utah, Arizona State controls its own destiny , needing only to beat Oregon on Saturday and Arizona the Saturday after to reach its second conference title game.According to S&P+, though, the Sun Devils are projected underdogs against Oregon and are in a virtual tossup against UA. Controlling your destiny only means so much if you’re unlikely to win out.There are, for all intents and purposes, four games in this race. Let’s see what S&P+ has to say about each.November 17: Arizona State at Oregon (S&P+ win probability: Oregon 54%)November 17: Utah at Colorado (Utah 78%)November 17: Arizona at Washington State (Wazzu 80%)November 24: Arizona State at Arizona (50%)It should be noted that S&P+ is not designed to take injuries into account, at least not before the team’s play is affected by the injuries. So while it is extremely confident in Utah’s chances of winning at a collapsing Colorado, maybe it should be a hair less confident, even if the Utes offense looked fine last Saturday.Even if you tamp down that 78 percent win probability, you only tamp it down so much (again, Colorado is lost in the woods at the moment), and win projections suggest Utah is still very much in the driver’s seat.Let’s look at the scenarios required for each team to win and the odds of each.Utah (65 percent)Beat Colorado and have ASU lose to either Arizona or Oregon (or both)Lose to Colorado but have ASU lose to both Arizona and Oregon and Arizona lose to WazzuArizona State (33 percent)Beat Oregon and ArizonaLose to Oregon, beat Arizona, have Colorado beat UtahBeat Oregon, lose to Arizona, have Colorado beat Utah and Wazzu beat ArizonaArizona (2 percent)Beat Washington State and Arizona State and have Utah lose to ColoradoHere are the odds of each potential combinationTongueac-12 South ScenariosASU-UO winnerUU-CU winnerUA-WSU winnerASU-UA winnerS&P+ OddsSouth ChampASU-UO winnerUU-CU winnerUA-WSU winnerASU-UA winnerS&P+ OddsSouth ChampIf you believe that Utah’s win probability against Colorado is more like 70 percent because of the injuries, that changes the overall odds to Utah 60 percent, ASU 37 percent, Arizona three percent. And if you believe that Utah’s chances against Colorado are more like 60 percent (I do not), that tamps the Utes’ division odds down to about 55 percent. Regardless, if Utah handles its business in Boulder Youth De'Vondre Campbell Jersey , the odds are good that ASU will lose one of the next two, and Whittingham will finally have his division title. Well hi, it’s Week 12 of the college football season and folks, Alabama had its worst half of the entire season against none other than 4-5 FCS team The Citadel during what’s supposed to be the SEC’s cupcake week. Bama was easily able to pull away in the second half and win 50-17, but The Citadel’s first half was glorious. 1. THE CITADEL TIED BAMA AT 10 IN THE FIRST HALF. Drink it in, folks. ESPNThe first half spread had Alabama -42!2. Alabama gave up more yards in the first half than it did all season. Nick Saban’s defense had given up fewer than 100 yards on defense in the first half all season. The Citadel had 149 yards of total offense in the first half alone. The Citadel runs the triple option, a hard system to defend, especially when you have a week to prepare. Running the ball that much also helps keep possessions down (Bama only had four in the first half), limiting the damage the more talented team can do.“It’s very challenging because it’s obviously different from anything that we see (with any regularity),” Saban said earlier this week. “We did spend some time (working against it) in fall camp. We did spend some time during the bye week trying to get our players to have a little better understanding of what they need to do and how they need to play it.”3. This was by far the worst first half for Alabama so far this season.The Tide entered this game first in the nation in beating its first-half point spreads, putting up big leads at the break every single week.4. The Citadel scored the longest rushing touchdown Bama’s defense has given up in years!5. The Tide needed 12 and a half minutes to score on offense — nearly six times longer than usual for Alabama. Until the LSU game on Nov. 3, Bama scored in the first two minutes of every game this season. 6. This Alabama fan drove nearly 800 miles to watch all that. 7. The Citadel’s Twitter account was having so much fun. Here it called out two SEC West teams who got shut out by the Tide:8. Saban already hated facing flexbone teams.This isn’t all that surprising — triple-option military academies are a combined 36-11-1 against huge point spreads since 1995. The Citadel isn’t technically Army, Navy, or Air Force, but it is similar in some ways. And anyone who picked The Citadel to cover the 53-point spread enjoyed that first half, to say the least.Saban hasn’t exactly taken FCS and triple option teams lightly. He once had this had this unforgettable quote about Georgia Southern in 2011:Alabama scored quickly in the second half and ended up winning comfortably, but hey, it was fun while it lasted!
12-21-2018, 10:06 AM,
Post: #2
RE: As the calendar flipped to November
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