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Addressing the defensive end position needs to be a priority in the 2019 draft.
03-15-2019, 08:48 AM,
Post: #1
Addressing the defensive end position needs to be a priority in the 2019 draft.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina invest a first or second round pick at the position. But since the Panthers still have their picks in Rounds 4 through 6 (they traded Round 7 in the 2017 Kevon Seymour deal) I wanted to explore how likely it would be for Carolina to land a solid defensive end in the later rounds. You know Authentic Trai Turner Jersey , finding a “sleeper”, a term almost all of us have used before with either late Panthers picks in years past or during our own fantasy drafts. But how likely is it that the Panthers can actually land a solid defensive end in the late rounds? One way to assess this is to simply look at the draft position of today’s “good” defensive ends. For “good” defensive ends I used Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) from 2018 and found a natural cutoff point at an AV of five or higher. I then cross-referenced AV with free, public data from Pro Football Focus and feel comfortable that while this list isn’t perfect, it’s at least directionally correct (full spreadsheet here). Here are the draft positions of the Top 32 defensive ends in 2018 as rated by AV:Not surprisingly, 18 of the 32 best defensive ends in 2018 were drafted in the first two rounds, but it did raise my eyebrows a bit to see an even split of nine first rounders and nine second rounders. Only six of the top 32 were drafted between rounds 4 through 7, so the odds aren’t great for the Panthers finding a sleeper. As a frame of reference, the six solid defensive ends drafted in the later rounds are Everson Griffen (4th) Womens Torrey Smith Jersey , Alex Okafor (4th), Brent Urban (4th), D.J. Reader (5th), Darius Philon (6th), and Stephen Weatherly (7th). Now, let’s look at the “hit rate” of late-round picks at defensive end. While this is an arbitrary number on my part, a solid NFL career can last eight years if not longer. Based on data from Football Reference a total of 92 defensive ends were drafted in Round 4 or later between 2011 and 2018. In all, of the 92 defensive ends drafted between Round 4 and 7 over the last eight years only six are among the NFL’s Top 32 Authentic Cam Newton Jersey , putting the hit rate at just 6.5 percent (six of 92). Another interesting observation is four undrafted free agents are among the NFL’s better defensive ends. This includes our very own Mario Addison, Romeo Okwara, Michael Bennett, and Cameron Wake. However, every year upwards of 500 UDFAs get signed every year, so good luck if that’s your path forward. If history continues to repeat itself the Panthers aren’t going to find a quality starter in the back half of the draft, though I would be delighted if they proved me wrong. This isn’t a shocking conclusion in and of itself, but it really illustrates just how rare it is to find true quality at defensive end in Round 4 or later. If anyone is holding out hope for a late-round defensive end sleeper Authentic DJ Moore Jersey , it’s probably time to wake up and smell the data. The Panthers will play without wide receiver Torrey Smith against the Steelers on Thursday night.Smith has been ruled out for the third straight week with a knee injury. A short week was always going to be tough for a return to action and Smith’s absence from practice the last two days all but assured he’d be missing another game.Devin Funchess, D.J. Moore, Jarius Wright, Curtis Samuel and Damiere Byrd will be Carolina’s wideouts.Four other Panthers received questionable designations for Thursday night, including center Ryan Kalil. Kalil has not practiced due to an ankle injury and head coach Ron Rivera indicated he will be a game-time call against Pittsburgh. Tyler Larsen would start if Kalil can’t play.Rivera expects defensive end Mario Addison and safety Eric Reid to play despite shoulder injuries. Linebacker David Mayo (groin) rounds out the group of questionable players.
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